Latest Constituency Vote — Polling Average
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Latest Regional List Vote — Polling Average
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Constituency Vote Over Time
Regional List Vote Over Time
Constituency Vote — Latest by Pollster
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Regional List Vote — Latest by Pollster
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Standing Again
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Not Standing
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Unknown / TBC
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Region:
| Constituency | Region | 2021 Winner | 2021 Runner Up | Majority | Incumbent MSP | Standing? | 2026 Candidate | Party Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Pollster:
Constituency Vote — All Polls
| Date | Pollster | Client | Sample | Con | Labour | Lib Dem | SNP | Alba | Reform | Green | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Regional List Vote — All Polls
| Date | Pollster | Client | Sample | Con | Labour | Lib Dem | SNP | Alba | Reform | Green | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Methodology ·
Full Uniform National Swing applied to each 2021 constituency result —
no party-specific dampening or vote-share floors.
All parties' projected shares are compared per seat; the highest wins.
Regional list seats (7 per region) via D'Hondt AMS using
actual polling averages — list vote ÷ (constituency seats won + 1), so
constituency gains suppress list returns.
Polling average: —.
· Run holyrood_postrat.R and set SOURCES.postrat.url to enable demographic-adjusted mode.
Projected Seat Totals — 129 seats
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Parliament Composition
Constituency
Regional List
Swing vs 2021 Constituency Baseline
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Projected Seats by SP Region
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| Region | Green | SNP | Lib Dem | Labour | Con | Reform | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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This dashboard was built by a team of 14 student researchers at the
University of St Andrews, selected from over 60 applicants for the
STAEM Election Monitoring Project. They were lead by three
faculty at the University, Katelyn Nutley, Kieran O'Meara, and Dr. Nick Brooke. The
team collected and verified polling data from Ipsos, Norstat, and Survation, built
constituency marginals, and helped design the tools you see here.
The Research Team
First Year
Joel Bradford
MA (Hons) German & International Relations
First Year
Bella Broadhurst
MA (Hons) International Relations
From Edinburgh.
First Year
Kirsten Callan
MA (Hons) Psychology & International Relations
Mature student with a background in people management.
Second Year
Zac Copley
MA (Hons) International Relations
Interest in policy and security.
Fourth Year
Oliver Dann
MA (Hons) International Relations & Modern History
Third Year
Irene Jimenez Fernandez De Moya
MA (Hons) Economics & International Relations
Third Year
Arden Griffin
MA (Hons) International Relations & Sustainable Development
Second Year
Sasha Kamenskii
MA (Hons) International Relations & Art History
Second Year
Julia Parrish
MA (Hons) Economics & International Relations
Second Year
Leo Rodney
MA (Hons) International Relations, French & German
Fourth Year
Clare Sacks
MA (Hons) International Relations
From New York. Dissertation: 'Retweeting Rigged Elections: Social Media Discourse and Partisan Beliefs about Electoral Integrity.'
Third Year
Catherine Taylor
MA (Hons) International Relations & Philosophy
First Year
Gina Virdee
MA (Hons) International Relations & Russian
Fourth Year
Zi Zi Wardle
MA (Hons) International Relations & Sustainable Development